馬杜羅的今天，就是賴清德的明天

[mtr]

伊朗的宗教政權佢未有明言，佢對 Modi 總統政權不穩的預測：

https://x.com/aravind/status/2007479997129490666

India in 2026 will be tried with protests and anarchy by programming various groups using SM instigating them using some issues that exist for them. All stirred up by the deep state - gig workers, medicos, students, airlines, teachers, farmers etc. It will be done to rock Modi govt's governance stability and India's economy to make them comply. Modi won't budge. If all fails, they may go to the sick level of trying to take him out using local elements or a transport sabotage. So he has to be very careful.

[mtr]

另一預言，相信已在祖國盤算之內。留意數字人民幣存款除可計存款利息外的進程。

https://x.com/pattem_raj/status/2007494665281626576

The USD isn’t going away. Given what’s happening in Venezuela today, the dollar is stronger than it’s been in a while. After Iran falls, all oil trade will be conducted entirely in USD. Russia alone can’t change the global oil trade.


https://x.com/pattem_raj/status/2007427082364600442

If China captures Taiwan & controls the semiconductor supply chain, US may try to block oil supplies to China via Red Sea, Malacca, Iran, Venezuela, Guyana, etc. Other OPEC+ members are aligned with the US, So Russia would be the main supplier. The US might try to restrict that as well.

[mtr]

https://x.com/Ric_RTP/status/2007429683713917147

... Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

The largest on Earth.

More than Saudi Arabia.

20% of the entire world's oil.

But here's the part that matters:

Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars.

In 2018, Venezuela announced it would "free itself from the dollar."

They started accepting yuan, euros, rubles, anything BUT dollars for oil.

They were petitioning to join BRICS.

They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely.

And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing:

The petrodollar.

In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia:

All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars.

In exchange, America provides military protection.

This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide.

Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil.

This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it.

It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending.

The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers.

[mtr]

... there's a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it:

2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq's oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched.

The WMDs were never found because they never existed.

2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the "gold dinar" for oil trade.

Hillary Clinton's own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention.

Email quote: "This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar."

2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets.

"We came, we saw, he died!" Clinton laughed on camera.

The gold dinar died with him.

And now Maduro.

[mtr]

https://x.com/gkgd_2006/status/2007618931385884707

委内瑞拉政局更迭，不利于东大，这是无可争议的，无论是在谈或已谈好的合作投资项目会中断，还是石油进口的价格会调高，进口份额锐减。包括本来已经采用人民币结算系统，也会受挫！所以映射到A股是必然的……

首先石油方面，不用多说，油贵则会让主力更加会联想到替代，谁替代，当然就是新能源，新发电方式（核电，风电）。

第二，结算系统搁浅，利好硬通币（金银铜等资源）

第三：事件自身会引起人们的心理活动问题，比如国防安全，定位暴露等……反推过来基本都在同一个概念：军工电子，信息安全（边沿化，还不如通信），卫星导弹（直观性）

但是这个事件在大A的反应度，应该不会很长就是，暂定1-3天。

因为目前大A走的趋势很明显是欧美科技的映射与竞争，以及自身国内的经济转型（或叫内因）

[mtr]

委內瑞拉而家佔我國石油進口約 5 巴仙，就算美國直接禁運委國石油予我國影響也不算嚴重。

https://x.com/Maxwell_SCU/status/2007441536833957969

委内瑞拉主要是中国提供的长期人民币贷款，委内瑞拉用石油还。贷款是在中国银行的信用证和信用额度的方式提供的。并非是把人民币现金钞票给委内瑞拉。美国制裁委内瑞拉，委内瑞拉也没法把人民币大规模的兑换成美元。所以，如果未来委内瑞拉拒绝向中国支付石油，中国的银行就把委内瑞拉的人民币“信用账户”停掉就行了。 当然，直接的一些投资比如油田投资会更复杂一些，但是未来委内瑞拉政府会不会直接撕破脸和中国商家一刀两断这个也很可疑。毕竟，理性的角度，直接把正常运营的外商赶跑没啥好处，坏处很多。

综上：损失肯定有，但是不至于太大，也影响不了国内油价。

[mtr]

https://x.com/tongtongbee/status/2007437056096809023


冷知识：委内瑞拉有20万中国人，其中有9成都是广东恩平人，杂货铺基本被恩平人垄断。恩平总人口50万，祖籍恩平的华侨超过60万，比本地人都多。甚至在恩平流传着一句话：恩平人的成人礼就是一张通往委内瑞拉的机票。但现在委国经济衰退，也有不少新去的人回来谋生了，所以在恩平也有着不少委内瑞拉餐厅，味蕾怀念曾经的第二故乡。

[mtr]

https://x.com/CatoKt4/status/2007589792255778870

... 国际社会实质性的动作如何？关注点如下：

截止目前，中美双方在事件发生之后首先发出强烈的谴责，表示美国此次行动违法国际法与国家主权原则，后续中俄双方是否有实质性的行动才是重点！？

是继续口头谴责？还是直接通过国际影响力干预？

俄罗斯方面此前在委瑞内拉附近举行军演，此次特朗普直接抓捕马杜罗，对委瑞内拉施行军事入侵，俄罗斯是否会继续往委瑞内拉派兵或者部署S400防空系统？

中方方面，可以关注后续15亿美元的货币互换是否继续，如果直接放弃，意味着在委瑞内拉的布局失败，反之，委瑞内拉还有转机。

拉美国家反应，美国此举可能会引发拉美国家“唇亡齿寒”的警惕性，墨西哥、巴西等国家是否从口头谴责升级为经济制裁或者与美国断交？或者军事联动？

古巴的态度如何，是否会积极推动拉美左翼积极联合对抗美国？

联合国安理会的最终裁决，目前安理会已经开启紧急会议，但是最终裁决并未公布，裁决结果如何，也是一个关注重点。

[mtr]

https://x.com/Trader_S18/status/2007618220128346331

仅从战术角度来看，美国这次抓捕马杜罗的行动可以说是非常成功，证明了美国霸权走下坡路的时候仍然对世界有掌控力。但这跟美国实力的相对衰落并不矛盾，大明崇祯年间皇帝也依然保持着对边军的控制。

这次行动更加印证了世界在从春秋走向战国，不管以什么借口，堂而皇之地抓捕一国总统，并为获得国内支持明牌对石油资源的诉求都是文明的倒退。

现在离世界大战只差中国下场了，这次行动之后，不论是海外嘲笑的声音还是国内要求复刻抓捕赖清德的呼声都非常高。东大保持克制固然显得很挫，但当哪天压不住火彻底放开手脚了，世界格局真的会为之大变，而这一天看起来并不会太远。

[streamboy]

[joe]